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Louisville Preview (11-1-06)
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If it feels like you've been waiting 9 months for this game, you're not alone. Ever since the final gun sounded against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl of Destiny, West Virginia fans have looked to the current season with our eyes on the ultimate prize of the BCS Championship, knowing all the while that the primary obstacle to that end existed in the form of the University of Louisville Cardinals. We've understood all along that the 7 games to start the season weren't to be taken lightly, but were but mere tune-ups for the Playoff at Pizza Park. (For licensing rights, please contact heyjude@wemustignitethiscouch.com.) Now that the game is upon us, let's break down the match-ups to determine exactly how badly the Mountaineers are going to destroy the Cardinals. Quarterbacks and Running backs At the beginning of the season, the popular assumption was that both Louisville and WVU had two Heisman candidates at the running back and quarterback positions. As it turned out, RB Michael Bush broke his leg, finishing his season, and QB Brian Brohm broke a finger off in Miami's collective ass, sidelining him for about a month as well. Brohm has returned in the last two weeks and racked up an impressive 263.5 yards per game, but has thrown 2 INT's to 1 TD, and hasn't looked like he's nearly as confident as he used to be. Louisville has tried to replace Bush with Kolby Smith, who ran for an impressive 165 yards and 2 TD's against Syracuse last week. George Stripling and Anthony Allen have combined with Smith in UL's backfield-by-committee, and both have played well. But over the course of Thursday's game, the Cards are going to sorely miss Bush, who put up astronomical numbers against WVU in last year's game, but was overshadowed because he happened to arrive on Steve Slaton Coming-Out Party Night. Meanwhile, Pat White got off to a slow start to the season (possibly still feeling the effects from a preseason injury), while Steve Slaton continued doing Steve Slaton-type shit. (1,059 yards, 9 Tds, and 7 yards per carry do anything for you? How about the power... to move you.) In the last few games though, Pat White has looked like the most dominant player in the Big East, averaging 302 yards per game over the last two games against Syracuse and Uconn. Top it off by mentioning that he's completing nearly 70% of his passes, and the whole “Stack the line, make White throw” strategy might not be the saving grace other teams were hoping for. Wide Receivers Ordinarily, I would have just included wide receivers in the last category, but when you've got guys suspended from the other team for blasting a woman up with paintballs, wide receivers get their own category. A couple of reserve wide receivers for the Cardinals made the news last week, as Chris Vaughn and Scott Long were suspended for Thursday's game following arrests for allegedly peppering a woman with paintballs. Authorities close to the situation say that the only positive angle of the story was that the players weren't from the University of Miami, where the guns would have been firing real bullets. While those two receivers hogged the headlines, the real factors from the receiver position are Harry Douglas and Mario Uruutia. Both have 520 receiving yards on the year, but Urrutia has been more of the TD threat, scoring 4 to Douglas's 1. (It should be noted that 3 of those TD's came against Temple and Middle Tennessee State, so that stat might be misleading.) WVU's receivers don't enjoy much stat-padding as a result of the team's run-oriented attack, but Brandon Myles and Darius Reynaud have played solid football so far this year. Wemustignitethiscouch.com exclusive prediction- Rayshawn Bolden will have a monster game against Louisville. Bolden had his best game of the year against Uconn, accumulating 93 yards on 3 catches and a TD. His ability to get deep on the Louisville secondary could be the key to opening up the running lanes for the backfield. Offensive and Defensive Lines Both offensive lines are experienced units that pave the way for their star players. WVU will have its hands full with Amobi Okoye and Willie Williams on the defensive line for the Cardinals, who are the strength of their defense. However, the strength of WVU's offensive line is its interior line of Dan Mozes, Jeremy Sheffey, and Greg Isdaner, and they should be able to neutralize that threat. Louisville will be hurt by the absence of starting defensive end Zach Anderson (who is listed as doubtful), leaving a first-time starter to determine whether Pat White or Steve Slaton has the ball. (Good times.) Meanwhile, the WVU defensive line has started to create pressure on the quarterback in recent weeks after a slow start that saw zero sacks in our first four games. Key to the Mountaineers' success in the trenches will be the health of Johnny Dingle, who may miss the game due to injury. The Louisville offensive line has been very effective in both pass and run blocking formations, but gave up two huge sacks against a not-so-intimidating Syracuse defense last week, one of which resulting in a fumble. Linebackers and Secondary Both units are fairly evenly matched. Boo McLee is the obvious star of the Mountaineers defense from the linebacker position, as Malik Jackson is to his. The big story of the game is going to surround Vaughn Rivers and Larry Williams and their ability to stay with the big receivers of the Cardinals. Quentin Andrews and John Holmes have looked much better in recent weeks, with Holmes emerging as one of the best players on the defensive side of the ball. (Now if he can just control his emotions and avoid Chris Henry-esque mental breakdowns, we'll be fine.) Special Teams Special teams are also evenly matched, although WVU should have a bit of an advantage whenever Darius Reynaud has the ball in his hands on kickoffs. Unfortunately, he will only receive one kickoff all day, so he must make the most of the opportunity he gets on the opening kickoff to get as much field position as possible. Neither team holds a real edge in punting or place-kicking, though Pat McAfee has a definite advantage in tackling ability over nearly every kicker I've ever seen. Final Result It shouldn't be surprising to regular readers of the site that we're predicting a huge win for the Mountaineers. The D-line will force Brohm into a few mistakes, setting up field position for the passing and rushing attack. Bolden gets deep a few times for nice yardage, White, Slaton, and Schmitt do their thing on the ground. Final score prediction- WVU 38, UL 21 The time has come. Stock up on chips, dips, and beers. If you're going to a bar to watch the game, be there by at least 3:00pm to get the primo spot in front of the plasma. If you're going to the game, burn in hell... err.. I mean, be loud. Let's do this, Mountaineers. |
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